The Run Home!

So 4 out of 7 wins from here on would see us make the 8 with an 11 and 9 record.

3 wins out of 7 would have us relying on what Manly do but we can still make the 8.

I think think this is exactly our run home:

Cows (A)
Manly (H)
Parra (A)
Storm (H)
Tigers (A)
Bulldogs (H)
Rorters (H)

Raiders have Broncos, Dogs and Titans next, we won’t be catching them.

Imo the best we can finish is 6th and the worst we can finish for mine is 9th.

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Win the next 2 and I reckon we make the 8.

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Unfortunate that we have to wait till the last game to play the Roosters as I reckon with the injuries they have at the moment we could beat them now.

Pretty good run home as we only have to travel to Townsville .

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Too true Rumbles, & with the restrictions around teams at present, the less traveling the better.

Really we are now two wins ahead of Manly, given their woeful points differential (and our respectable one) - there’s a hundred point difference between us and them, so both teams would probably need a huge turn-around in form to reverse that.

To be honest, I can’t see the final Eight changing from here. Wests have fallen in a heap, and Manly as mentioned have a lot of ground to make up (they do have a softer draw, but that won’t be doing them much good if they keep losing to the likes of the Warriors). If we can beat Manly in a fortnight, we may well be securing our finals place.

I can’t see us pushing into the Top Four - all of Penrith, Melbourne, Parramatta and Easts have a big advantage now in terms of competition points and points differential (all well over +100, a mile in front of any other team), which suggest a home final (5th or 6th) is our best bet.

The run home for each of the teams still in contention:

  1. Canberra (16 pts; +27): Brisbane, GC, Canterbury, Easts, St George, NZ, Cronulla.

  2. Newcastle (15 pts; +71): Manly, NQ, NZ, Cronulla, Easts, St George, GC.

  3. Souths (14 pts; +52): NQ, Manly, Parramatta, Melbourne, Wests, Canterbury, Easts.

  4. Cronulla (14 pts; +44): GC, Penrith, NQ, Newcastle, NZ, Easts, Canberra.

  5. Manly (12 pts; -48): Newcastle, Souths, Melbourne, Wests, Canterbury, GC, NZ.

  6. Wests (10 pts; +10): Canterbury, Easts, Penrith, Manly, Souths, Melbourne, Parramatta.

  7. NZ (10 pts; -131): Penrith, Canterbury, Newcastle, Parramatta, Cronulla, Canberra, Manly.

Looking at all this, I can see Canberra winning at least five of their last seven matches (and so end up on 26 pts), Newcastle winning four from seven (ending on 23pts), Souths winning four (22), Cronulla winning three (20), Manly winning four (20), Wests winning one (12) and NZ winning one (12).

So it looks like 7th place and a first week final in Newcastle is our most likely fate this year, but of course there will also be results in matches not involving us will also have an effect. And if we can jag a win against any or all of Parramatta, Melbourne or Easts (as well as win the matches we’d be expected to win) then we have a real chance of pushing into the Top Four.

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WK1 final. Souths v Knights
WK2 final. Souths v Parra
Prelim. Souths v Penrith
Grand final Souths v Roosters

Premier - Well that’s obvious!:grinning:

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We can but dream! In reality I’d be satisfied if we make it to the second week of the finals.

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Dogs big chance to avoid the spoon over the next 2 weeks

Yes and atm they‘re points differential is around 70 points better than the broncos too.

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The dogs are no hope to beat anyone.

I have been watching hoping for 1 win and nothing.

I don’t think we are any chance at all of a top 4 finish.

We are 4 points behind the Roosters (4th) who have a 122 better point differential.

The Roosters play an injury ravaged Storm, Tigers and Broncos in the next 3 weeks. We aren’t catching them.

We’d have to win minimum 6 of 7 - probably 7 of 7 and that ain’t happening.

The top 4 as it is now is a lock, it’s just where they land in the top 4 that is up for question.

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At least with covid there won’t be much of a home ground advantage.

Not like last year when the refs and bunker felt pressured by the crowd to award that BS “try” after Corey Allan had grounded the ball ingoal meaning the ball was out of play from that instant onwards.

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I like the way we have been building. long way from perfect and lots of improvement left, but love the way our forwards have been performing. Watch this space

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if cookie regains his 2018 and early 2019 form then we MAY have a slight chance to make a run for the premiership , its all on him imo

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Don’t hold your breath.

Big fan of Cook but he hasn’t played a great game in over 12 months.

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If Storm beat Easts - the door opens

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Good fortune for us - AFB out for a month.

In any scenario Melbourne will be in the GF.

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Making the top 4 is now at the point of being a bridge too far and our best realistic chance is 5th or 6th spot which may not be a bad result.
This season there isn’t a real home ground advantage with games being played in a handful of venues with restricted crowds.
The teams we want to deathride are Raiders, Knights, Sharks and Sea Eagles.
I’d say that we can knock the Sea Eagles out of the race when we play them in a fortnight. That game is pivotal.
At this point Raiders and Knights are blocking our pathway to 5th and 6th and of course we need to keep the Sharks off our tails.

Some interesting tussles coming up:

Raiders 16 have Broncos, Titans, Bulldogs, Roosters, Dragons, Warriors, Sharks
Knights 15 have Sea Eagles, Cowboys, Warriors, Sharks, Roosters, Dragons, Titans,
Rabbitohs 14 have Cowboys, Sea Eagles, Eels, Storm, Tigers, Bulldogs, Roosters
Sharks 14 have Titans, Panthers, Cowboys, Knights, Warriors, Roosters, Raiders
Sea Eagles 12 have Knights, Rabbitohs, Storm, Tigers, Bulldogs, Titans, Warriors

So in summary
Raiders play 2 teams in top 8
Knights play 2 teams in top 8
Rabbitohs play 3 teams in top 8
Sharks play 4 teams in top 8
Sea Eagles play 3 teams in top 8

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Any updates of Sele’s return from injury?