Melbourne Cup Tips

Ok, who has a good thing? Maybe some other race on the day as well.

As winners can always be a surprise you’d think Surprise Baby is a special.

BUT REMEMBER GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY

Golf tee. Put your balls on it …

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I’m having $50 each way on Verry Elleegant.
She had a brilliant Caulfield Cup win and I reckon she will go one better tomorrow.

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https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/sport/melbourne-cup-sweep-generator-2020-take-on-your-mates/news-story/5db594b8400fcd0b3d9fd4d67bf63f09

Tiger Moth, Anthony van Dyck, Ashrun.

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Anthony Van Dyck.

It’s probably the classiest international horse to compete in the Cup.

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I’m not sold on Surprise Baby. Ran 5th in Melbourne Cup last year and not setting the track on fire in recent runs.

Tigermoth has run well on good tracks. I have an eye on this horse but worried if it will get to front over distance. Track is current rated as good.

The Cup is a tough race to pick… so many possibilities.

Does really well around the 2400m

Good each way prices for Warning & Miami Bound last years 3yo classic winners.

Can’t work out whether the owners of that horse are illiterate, bad spellers, or simply taking the piss. What a shit name for a horse.

I doubt that Aidan O’Brien would bring it here if he wasn’t convinced it would stay the distance, but you’re right in saying it has yet to win over the longer journey.

The first Epsom Derby winner though to run in the Melbourne cup and it’s Caulfield cup run was full of merit .

Still this is the Melbourne Cup and there is as usual quite a lot of genuine chances.

Good luck everyone.:slightly_smiling_face:

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Vinnie Roe holds that title for mine but Van Dyck’s form around Stradivarius certainly puts him near the top of the tree.

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The problem for me is, my club knocks the balls around when it swings.

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Bragger…some of us only have a pitching wedge…

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You find that 2400 at tracks in England & Ireland transfers to a longer distance compared to here due to the undulating tracks, you often have quite steep rises etc

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No. 15: Russian Camelot
No. 21: Tiger Moth
No. 17: The Chosen One
I will throw in my trifecta.

One of the puzzles to solve for picking a Melbourne Cup winner is whether a runner can stay the distance (assuming they already have the class to win).

The internationalisation of the Melbourne Cup in the modern era has only made this puzzle harder as many high-class horses compete in the race without any form over 3200M.

But there are a couple of ways to remove a lot of this guesswork.

1. Staying ability is 100% inherited from the dam line
Mitochondria are the engines of cells that produce fuel for muscles contract (adenosine triphosphate). Endurance is governed by how well or efficient mitochondria function. Mitochondrial DNA is 100% inherited from the female line (male DNA makes no contribution here). Therefore, staying ability is exclusively inherited from the dam line of racehorses.

Note; if the dam of a contender did not race over a distance then you can go back to the next generation’s dam and so on until you find some race performances that indicate staying ability as it’s the same mitochondrial DNA at work here.

I used to work in the racing industry and a vet I used to work with first told me about this nearly 30 years ago. Knowing this as scientific fact, I’m amazed journalists and analysts don’t research the dam line of horses with a question mark over their ability to run a strong 3200M.

2. Myostatin gene setting
In 2009 scientists mapped the thoroughbred horse genome. Further research identified one gene, the myostatin gene as the gene responsible for regulating muscle development and muscle fibre type (fast-twitch for sprinters, slow-twitch for stayers). Depending on which setting a horse has of this gene (there are 3) will determine what distance range they are best suited to.

Note; you could have a horse that has the myostatin setting for staying but with a dam line that has a poor staying record. In other words, a horse predisposed to staying but relatively slow staying!

There are now professional DNA mapping agencies in the UK that do this test for trainers and breeders.

It would be nice to know this data but at present this is inside information that only owners and trainers are privileged to.

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I like Twilight Payment & Dick Van Dyke ( I know it’s not his real name, but I call him that).

Think I will go a 1, 6, 12, 13 box Trifecta - $24.

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If picking 4, do a boxed first four for $24 also. Big win if you pull it off

Didn’t know any of that… thanks… good to learn.